The Chinese then took over the funding amidst heightened international concern regarding the social, technical, and environmental repercussions of the Ethiopian dams. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. The dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia (an area about four times the size of Cairo), displace approximately 20,000 people in Ethiopia, and create a reservoir that will hold around 70 billion cubic . 17th round of GERD tripartite talks hits wall in Cairo. Churning waters: Strategic shifts in the Nile basin. Ethiopia, whose highlands supply more than 85 percent of the water that flows into the Nile River, has long argued that it has the right to utilize its natural resources to address widespread poverty and improve the living standards of its people. Such an understanding and appreciation of Egypts water vulnerability would help the riparians develop a water management protocol that can significantly enhance equitable and reasonable use while minimizing significant harm to downstream riparians. disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam Indeed, the ICJ confirmed in Gabikovo-Nagymaros Project that all riparian states have a basic right to an equitable and reasonable sharing of the resources of the watercourse. Moreover, these principles were pulled through into the DoP agreed by both Egypt and Ethiopia. per year, that would constitute a drought and, according to Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia would have to release some of the water in the dams reservoir to deal with the drought. Since its inception, there have been two, highly contentious, products. Egypts original goal was to have the project purely and simply cancelled. This includes Sudan, another downstream nation that one might assume would oppose its construction. Practically from the outset, the World Bank and international donors withdrew funding due to a lack of transparency, driven home when it was learned that the construction had begun without a permit from the Environmental Protection Agency in Ethiopia. (PDF) Benefit of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project (GERDP) for Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a critical project that intends to provide hydroelectricity to support the livelihoods of millions of people in the region. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and hydroelectric project is located 700 km northeast of the capital city Addis Abeba, in the Benishangul--Gumaz region of Ethiopia, along the Blue Nile River. In its 2013 report, the International Rivers Organisation predicted that the long-term effects of the Gibe III Dam would turn Lake Turkana into another Aral Sea. Ethiopian opinion is divided over the need for such huge investments in hydroelectric energy when the national network is still very underdeveloped and unable to cope. The change of government in Egypt led to a more conciliatory approach (Von Lossow & Roll, 2015). Workers move iron girders from a crane at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba, Ethiopia, on Dec. 26, 2019. . Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(4), 687-702. khadsyy Plus. Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. Learn. The Nile riparians must understand that the river is a common resource whose effective management must be approached from a basin-wide perspective. Trilateral talks mediated by the United States and World Bank from November 2019 to February 2020 collapsed as Ethiopia rejected a binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan on the filling and operation of the GERD, which led to both downstream countries requesting intervention from the UN Security Council (UNSC) in May 2020 (Kandeel, 2020). It seeks to build an infrastructure for regional water hegemony, positioning it, at the very least, in such a way that it can exchange water for oil. An unsubscribe function is also at the bottom of every newsletter. International rights organisations have reported that many cases of displacement were not voluntary and that entire communities were driven from their villages. Created by. Revisiting hydro-hegemony from a benefitsharing perspective: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The dispute resolution committee could be made up of the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), which includes the ministers in charge of water affairs in all member states of the Nile River Basin. 74 cubic metres. In any event, the dispute remains. At that point, the lake that . Ethiopia also seems to have the political upper hand given that the Dam is effectively a fait accompli and given that Egypts erstwhile downstream ally, Sudan, switched sides in the dispute leaving the Egyptians diplomatically isolated. Most recently, there have been suggestions that the African Union should resolve the disagreement. In recognition of the fact that the Nile Waters Treaties had become an uncomfortable and anachronistic vestige of colonialism, ten watercourse states along the Nile (including Egypt and Ethiopia) agreed in 1999 to form the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. Filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) along the Blue Nile River is well under way near the Ethiopia-Sudan border. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. The countrys 2003 development plan introduced many more, and the Ethiopian government launched an ambitious PR campaign to encourage donor nations and international funding agencies to support these projects financially and ideologically as the highway to Ethiopian development and prosperity. First woman appointed to the Canada Supreme Court. 1800m long and 170m high. In the relatively unlikely scenario that the above points failed, Ethiopia could argue that there has been such a change of circumstances since the Nile Waters Treaties were concluded that they ought to be terminated. In June 2020, tensions escalated when Ethiopia declared its intent to fill the dam in July without an agreement, which again led to Egypt and Sudan requesting UNSC intervention on the matter (Kandeel, 2020). Cairo - U.S. Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa Ambassador Mike Hammer met with senior Egyptian government officials on July 25 to advance a diplomatic resolution on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that supports the water needs, economy, and livelihood of all Egyptians, Sudanese, and Ethiopians. Sudans agricultural and hydropower interests align with those of Ethiopia while it has a strong interest in not alienating its 'big brother' and northern neighbour, Egypt, with whom it shares a long and partly contested border (Whittington et al., 2014). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Africa's Water Tower However, as a result of the ability and willingness of Ethiopians at home and abroad to invest in the dam project, the government was able to raise a significant portion of the money needed to start the construction of the GERD. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is the new - The Conversation What are the disadvantages of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Basically, Ethiopia should cooperate with the other riparian states in developing and adopting an effective drought mitigation protocol, one that includes the possibility that GERD managers may have to release water from the reservoir, when necessary, to mitigate droughts. Swain, A. However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. The controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Brookings per year, that would constitute a drought, to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD, 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement. Therefore, all the water is eventually released downstream with the effect that there is no net loss of water to downstream states. Still, Egypt may be playing with fire if it were to press the legal significance of the DoP. 2. They can also cause dispute and heartachefor example, over damage to. In particular, the DoP takes a very strict approach to the no significant harm rule. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa's largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries. Another impressive snippet of information is that the Government of Ethiopia is financing the entire project, along with loans mainly from China. However, as noted above, the trouble with relying on the DoP is that its legal status is not clearly defined. GIGA Focus No. A political requirement will be to agree on rules for filling the GERD reservoir and on operating rules for the GERD, especially during periods of drought. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - ArcGIS StoryMaps European countries including Italy, Belgium and especially the UK controlled the Nile as part of colonisation and the broader Scramble for Africa. These colonising states used the tactic of concluding treaties (often at gunpoint) to secure their interests and, in this case, essentially prohibit upstream states from using their own waters. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. Today, however, Ethiopia is building the Grand Renaissance Dam and, with it, Ethiopia will physically control the Blue Nile Gorgethe primary source of most of the Nile waters. Test. Amazingly, the normally required social and environmental impact studies were only conducted three years after construction of the dam had began. The withdrawal from the project by Deltares has been met by a wave of objections in Egypt for fear . Egypt relies on the river for as much as 90 percent of its freshwater and sees the new dam as an existential . Sudan is caught between the competing interests of Egypt and Ethiopia. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Sign up for news on environment, conflict and cooperation. What Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia must overcome to all benefit from the Grand Renaissance Dam. Ethiopian Renaissance Dam & Its implications on Egypt Ethiopia, with a population of more than 115 million people and Projected to be 230 million by 2050. This antipathy is not new, with Munzinger noting even in the nineteenth century that Ethiopia is a danger for Egypt [which] must either take over Ethiopia and Islamize it or, retain it in anarchy and misery. Still, the Dam brings the old enmity into sharp focus. Ethiopia's determination to build a major new dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), for hydropower purposes has been the flashpoint of current conflicts in the Eastern Nile Basin (Gebreluel, 2014). Ethiopias dam-construction strategy threatens not only Kenyas water-resource development efforts but also Somalias water security, as is evidenced by Ethiopias development plans for the Jubba and Shebelle Rivers. Solar and wind power could break the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Before discussing the benefits, the article will brief the general technical overview of the GERDP. Following the fall of Mengistu Haile-Mariams regime in Ethiopia in 1991, Ethiopia experienced a remarkable rise in the construction of dams and hydroelectric power stations. A political requirement will be to agree on rules for filling the GERD reservoir and on operating rules for the GERD, especially during periods of drought. The Kenyan Lake is heavily dependent on the fresh water and vital nutrients supplied by the rivers annual floods, making it a paradise for fisheries. The United States is Committed to Egypt's Water Security and Advancing Download PDF 1.40 MB. Thus, as with the Watercourses Convention and the CFA, the DoP does not offer a clear legal resolution to the dispute. Third, Egypt should abandon continued references to its so-called natural historical rights (i.e., the water rights granted Egypt by the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan). However, by far the largest of these projects is the GERD, which was announced in 2010 and work on which was launched in 2011 by means of a nationwide fundraiser in which Ethiopian civil servants were reportedly obliged to volunteer a months salary to invest in GERD bonds. (2017). Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam. Egyptian players abroad: Mostafa Mohamed's Nantes defeated at PSG, Trezeguet.. Italy Serie A results & fixtures (25th matchday), Egypts Prosecution investigates Hoggpool, Six European nations express concern over growing violence in Palestinian territories, Egyptian Premier League fixtures (21st matchday), US official says Biden expected to tighten rules on US investment in China. The US has revived diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute sparked by Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Nile. It has also expressed concerns about the potential impact the initial filling of the dam will have on areas downstream. Water Politics and the Gulf States: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Ethiopia argues that developing this resource is crucial to its economic development, and to overcoming poverty and famine, that have plagued the country in the past. On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. The filling regime and operational methods of GERD will affect Egypt, in particular through its impact on the operation of its Aswan High Dam (AHD) which aims at mitigating the high variability of the Nile River flow. The situation seemed to improve in the beginning of 2015 when tripartite negotiations were held in order to determine principles of cooperation. The Ethiopian government is spending $4.7 billion to construct the 1,780-meter dam across the Blue Nile. These two factors could become serious problems. Attia, H. & Saleh, M. (2021). Ethiopia starts generating power from River Nile dam - BBC News It's very unpredictable and it can be very dangerous," says Pottinger. Another difficulty for Egypt is that making this argument (i.e. Who Is Financing Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the Blue Nile dam, which Egypt fears will imperil its water supply. According to present plans, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) now under construction across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, and one of the 12 largest in the world. It can be demand-driven, typically caused by population growth, and supply-driven, typically caused by decreasing amounts of fresh water often resulting from climate change or a result of societal factors such as poverty. I agree with the delivery of the newsletter. However, Sudans future water requirements will likely exceed its water quota as defined in the 1959 Agreement. As they consider this controversial issue, all 11 riparian countries should seek to improve relations among themselves beyond their relationship with the Nile, especially in mutually beneficial areas such as trade; educational and cultural exchanges; the management of natural resources, including water; dealing with threats to peace and security, including the suppression and prevention of terrorism and extremism; and confronting major challenges to economic growth and poverty alleviation, such as climate change, widespread illiteracy, and poor infrastructure. The current global energy crisis may help in this regard in the sense that Egyptians may find the allure of discounted hydroelectric energy stronger than ever before. His successor, Mohamed Morsi, said that Egypt was prepared to defend each drop of Nile water with blood. An armed conflict has not emerged, but there are suggestions that Egyptian intelligence services undermined Ethiopia internally by assisting the Oromo Liberation Front in its campaign of civil unrest in Ethiopia in 2016. What is your opinion on Ethiopia's chances of completing the "Great Political instability in Egypt played an important role as the announcement of the project coincided with the resignation of President Mubarak during the Arab Spring. Many historical grievances and distrust remain on the Ethiopian side regarding Egypt (Gebreluel, 2014), with some Ethiopian journalists assessing the 'Declaration of Principles' as being more in favour of Egypt than Ethiopia (Zegabi East Africa News, 2015). Crucially, however, despite being signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, the legal status of the DoP was left (deliberately) vague. The Grand Renaissance Dam - Ethiopia's greatest risk An argument could be made that some of its provisions have passed into customary international law, however, that would require clear general practice and opinio juris. General view of the talks on Hidase Dam, built on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, between Sudan and Egypt in Khartoum, Sudan on October 04, 2019. On Foes and Flows: Vulnerabilities, Adaptive Capacities and Transboundary Relations in the Nile River Basin in Times of Climate Change. This is good news for Egypt and Sudan as hydropower means little actual water withdrawal. Ethiopias Blue Nile Dam is an opportunity for regional collaboration, Developing countries are key to climate action, Self-organizing Nigeria: The antifragile state, Managing the compounding debt and climate crises. Match. These discussions highlighted benefits such as more consistent water flow, minimising the risks of flood and drought, and the potential for discounted hydroelectricity produced by the Dam. There are three key articles. Egyptian Water Security and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Why The GERD and the Revival of the Egyptian-Sudanese Dispute over the Nile Waters. The latter, in Article 2(4), allocated acquired rights of 66% of Nile water to Egypt and 22% to Sudan (with the remaining 12% attributed to leakage). Ethiopia could argue that those imperial powers did not foresee the decolonisation of Africa and that this represented a watershed event that profoundly changed the foundation on which the Nile Water Treaties were constructed. His research indicates that rapid filling of the reservoir could lead to severe economic losses, though he notes that expanding groundwater extraction, adjusting the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam, and cultivating crops that require less water could help offset some of the impact. The CFA was a political success for the eight upstream states such as Ethiopia as it favoured those states and isolated the downstream states of Egypt and Sudan and made them appear recalcitrant. On March 4, 1909, the Copyright Act of 1909 became law, making infringement of a copyright a federal crime for the first time. There has long been a conflict over water rights among the riparian countries of the Eastern Nile Basin (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia). Addis Ababa expects to sell no less than 4,000 Megawatts (MW) of electricity to its regional partners in the coming decade. Therefore, a negotiated position that favours Ethiopia is likely to be reached once it becomes politically palatable enough inside Egypt. In terms of the current status of talks, in 2019, US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin began facilitating negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia which led to some tentative progress. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a Big Deal - BORGEN Afraid that a drought might appear during the filling period, Egypt wants the filling to take place over a much longer period. This article quantifies the major benefits of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project for Sudan and Egypt based on GERDP technical design and quantitative analysis. Al Jazeera (2020). Challenges for water sharing in the Nile basin: changing geo-politics and changing climate. "I came to Cairo on my first official trip to the region to hear . the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . First, as noted above, Ethiopia contributes 86% of the water in the Nile and so it seems only natural that it has an equitable claim to using Nile waters to aid growth in its impoverished economy. Egypt's 100 million people rely on the Nile for 90% of the country's water needs. It imports about half its food products and recycles about 25 bcm of water annually. The Ethiopian government has always availed itself of its power to transfer local populations off land it decides to declare a public resource. It is therefore intrinsically connected with the question of land ownership. The failure of the latest talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and downstream states Egypt and Sudan. (eds.). Since 2015, technical reports on the potential impacts of the dam have failed to reach a consensus within the TNC (Maguid, 2017). Recently, however, Sudan has been more cautious with the project, citing concerns that the GERDs operation and safety could jeopardise its own dams (The New Arab, 2020b). Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam, believes as much. In fact, about 85 % of the overall Nile flow originates on Ethiopian territory (Swain, 2011). Subsequent impact studies were performed by the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank, and in the light of the results, these banks cancelled their funding for Gibe III. Nile negotiations break down as Egypt, Sudan accuse Ethiopia of rejecting legally binding agreement. Ultimately, however, Egypt did not sign the CFA (nor did Sudan) hence it does not resolve the dispute. [35] In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. Egypt, which lies 1,600 miles downstream of the Dam, believes its operation will reduce the amount of fresh water available to it from the Nile. We do know that Ethiopia is already seeing longer droughts and worse floods. Ethiopia should get its fair share of water that originates in Ethiopia. Salman, S.M.A. EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images. The Politics Of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Analysis Mainly, for the downstream countries, the. As early as 1957, Ethiopian officials said that the Somalian economy could not survive on its own given how heavily dependent it was on Ethiopia. Since then, there has been a constant stream of complaints regarding the social and environmental impacts on downriver areas, including large displacements of local populations. 2011. how much does the reservoir contain? Moreover, after the completion of the GERD, Egypt could run short of water if the operation of the GERD was not carefully coordinated with that of the AHD. It provides clear benefits to all three riparian, such as flood control, reduced flood damages and sediment control. In addition, no independent, multilateral Environmental and Social Impact Assessments has been carried out suggesting that Ethiopia is reneging from the 2015 Declaration of Principles (Kandeel, 2020). While such dams also come with long-term benefits to local populations, the chief beneficiary will always be the state, which reaps profits from the sale of surplus electricity. To date, no significant harm has been caused to Egypt or Sudan as a result of the ongoing construction of the GERD. Even without taking the dam into account, the largely desert country is short of water. The late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who laid the foundation stone in 2011, said the dam would be built without begging for money . Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) - ArcGIS StoryMaps The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Gets Set to Open - Hiiraan Online Chinese banks provided financing for the purchase of the turbines and electrical equipment for the hydroelectric plants. (2014). In short, the Nile Waters Treaties do little to constrain Ethiopias ability to construct the Dam. Despite the fact that newly independent Sudan in the late 1950s was literally forced by a dominant Egypt into a highly asymmetrical water-sharing arrangement, Sudan has rarely challenged this arrangement. For a decade, Egypt and Ethiopia have been at a diplomatic stalemate over the Nile's management. The unilateral decision taken by Ethiopia - which never recognised the 1959 agreement but had previously not been able to challenge it in fact - to build the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 represents a major political challenge to the 1959 Agreement. Ethiopian Yearbook of International Law 2017. The dispute has prompted numerous international interventions, including by Gulf Arab states, which have issued political statements and led mediation efforts. Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. to hydrate farmland), it would effectively be taken from downstream states like Egypt. It will be the largest hydropower project in Africa. March 14, 2020, 6:57 AM. A major reason the GERD is so controversial today is that it has not been subjected to thorough safety and impact studies, which could pose a grave threat to downriver nations. The results indicated that the negative impacts on Egyptian water resources are dominant. Addis Ababa has said the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $4bn hydropower project, is crucial to its economic development and to provide power. In general, the Ethiopian development philosophy rests on two pillars: mega-dams and mega-agricultural projects. Note that, under Article 62(2) VCLT, territorial treaties are excepted from the change in circumstances rule. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. Faced with the anachronistic Nile Waters Treaties on the one hand and the absence of a suitable replacement on the other, discussions about the Dam have fallen into something of a stalemate. Given the importance of water to Ethiopian agriculture, it resulted in the tragic irony that, as Thurow put it, the land than feeds the Nile is unable to feed itself. The status quo started to change when Ethiopia began construction of the Dam, just east of its border with Sudan, in 2011. IDS (2013). Indeed, Principle II notes that the purpose of the [Dam] is for power generation and regional integration through generation of sustainable and reliable clean energy supply. This is crucial given that hydroelectricity generation simply involves holding water back behind a dam for a period of time, and then releasing it again in a managed manner so that the electric turbines can spin consistently.
